FROM ROGER: I'd like to thank you for showing me a world I didn't know existed. For the first time I knew what I was doing, by reading your books, when I stepped up to the table. I had the best run of my life, so far. My best was 31 before the 7.
I couldn't have done it without your influence and help. Thanks!
On another note, I watched a gentleman place a Pass Line bet, no odds, then on the second roll take a $50 Don't Come. Once that was up he used Place bets on the remaining points. Then $5 on the Come bet and odds on the Pass Line bet. If the Place bets hit he uses the winnings for the come bet odds.
If a 7 shows he's covered for his original bets. Now if the 7&11 show on the second it's a major hit, but even the "crazy crappers" rarely 7 on the second throw. I know you don't buy into hedge betting, so shoot some holes in this.
FRANK RESPONDS: Yikes, I can’t remember what the guy is doing! Let me go step by step.
Each bet is a separate game with the casino. So his Pass Line bet will lose him 1.41 percent. I am guessing he bets $50 on the Pass Line (since he does so on the Don’t Pass) so his expected loss is 71 cents per $50 over time. Now, he puts up a Don’t Come which has basically the same house edge as the Pass Line bet (just a little lower) so that bet is going to cost him 70 cents over time.
To be more descriptive:
The initial placing of the Don’t Come is in the danger zone because it can immediately lose on the 7 and 11. That’s 8 ways of losing! If that 7 hits, not only does he lose his Don’t Come bet but he also loses his Pass Line bet. That’s $100 down the tubes in one roll. That will happen 16.67 percent of the time!
If the 11 is rolled, he’ll only lose his Don’t Come bet of $50; but he won’t win anything on the Pass Line. So 22 percent of the time your bettor is going to lose right off the bat. He will win his Don’t Come if the 2 or 3 is rolled.
So, you see our gentleman is walking treacherous grounds right at the start of his strange betting scheme.
Now take a look at all the other bets. Each comes in with a house edge that varies from 1.52 percent on the 6 and 8, to four percent on the 5 and 9, to 6.67 percent on the 4 and 10. None of these bets are advantageous for the player.
Here is the best way to look at it. If you place nine players at a craps table and have one bet a $50 Pass Line with no odds; one bet a $50 Pass Line with odds; one bet a $50 Don’t Pass; six others each Placing one of the box numbers will any of these players have a positive outcome over time?
The answer is an emphatic no. There are no hedges that can reduce the house edge. Simple, horrible fact. This complicated betting scheme does the same thing all betting schemes do --- it loses.
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