QUESTION: Betting the don’t in craps, is there ever a time when it’s smarter NOT to lay the odds? I heard 6 and 8 are shooter’s numbers, and that I should back off on those points.
ANSWER: The 6 and 8 are the most commonly rolled numbers other than 7, but there are still more ways to make a 7 than there are 6 and 8. If you’re on the don’t and the shooter establishes a 6 or 8 as the point, you have six ways to win --- the six ways to make 7 --- and only 5 ways to lose.
Once a point is established, the don’t bettor is always the favorite to win the bet. You’re a bigger favorite if the point is 5 or 9, and an even bigger favorite if the point is 4 or 10, but I wouldn’t call any number a “shooter’s number.”
You lay 5-6 odds to back a don’t pass bet when the point is 6 or 8, and that accurately reflects the odds of winning. There is no house edge when laying the odds, just as there’s no house edge in taking the odds when you’re betting the other side.
When I play the don’t, I keep my bet at house minimum. That minimizes losses on the come-out, where the don’t bettor is the underdog. Then I lay the odds, no matter what the point.
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