This was posted by John “Skinny” on the Golden Touch Craps private members-only web site.
To Poster: DB+W, an Iron Cross supporter:
I understand your point regarding the Iron Cross. I even agree with part of what you are saying about getting paid on more bets during an extended roll as opposed to having neutral or standoff rolls. In fact I did cover that very point in my first response to you on the other thread. In that post I explained the general betting pattern or "system" when the "dice controller" IS throwing the dice. I gave a short answer and you may not have grasped some of the subtleties in that reply. I will elaborate a bit more here in the hope it clarifies my position.
You mention getting paid on horn numbers on an extended roll. There are 2 problems with that for a controlled shooter (one of them applies to a random shooter as well).
When using the hardways set [editor’s note: the dice are set 2:2, 3:3, 4:4, 5:5 on the faces with the 6:6 and 1:1 on the sides], a 2, 3, 11 or 12 are all bad throws. If a controlled shooter is throwing more Horn numbers than expected by the probability of doing so, he is not exerting any control over the dice. Nor is he is not keeping the dice on axis and is lucky that he is not throwing a 7.
The second problem (this also applies to random shooters) is that all the bets involving those numbers have a much higher house advantage than many other bets that are available. This means the payouts are too low for those bets in relation to what the true odds are for throwing those numbers.
The field bet has the lowest house advantage of the bad bets involving Horn numbers. But even there it carries a house advantage of 5.56% or 2.78% depending on whether the 2 or 12 pays triple or not.
What this means is that in the long run this will be a losing bet for a controlled shooter. When he is throwing these numbers he is doing something wrong so he can not expect to throw more of these numbers than expected on a consistent basis. Without being able to do that he will not be able to overcome the lower payout for those bets in relation to the probability expected for those numbers.
A controlled shooter using the Hardways set who is able to control the dice should expect to throw a higher number of box numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10) than the probabilities dictate. So this leads to the question of how to exploit this expectation. I like to use Pass Line and Come bets with maximum odds. Line bets with 2X odds or 5X odds reduce the house advantage to .606% and .326% respectively. These house advantages are five to 15 times lower than the house advantage for the Field bet or a Place bet on the 5 or 9 which has a 4% house advantage. This means I only have to throw a few more box numbers than the probabilities dictate to be able to overcome the payout for my Come bets.
In addition, Come bets provide me some protection if I have a short roll because I will not have my total initial amount at risk on the table until my roll extends for a bit. If I do get into a long roll, I will have all the box numbers covered and get paid for each one of them I hit. When my throw is on, I will be hitting more box numbers and fewer Horn numbers than probability dictates and I will be getting paid on every box number I hit.
These are the reasons why I prefer to make Pass Line and Come bets on myself when I shoot.
Before you seemed to reject the concept of understanding the house advantage. You do not yet appreciate the distinction between a house advantage that is less than 2% vs. one which is 4% or greater. But you need to understand that it is all about the numbers and probabilities. The house advantage directly effects what you can expect to make in relation to how well you can control the dice. We can not afford to bet on numbers that pay out less based on the number of times we can expect to throw that number in relation to the probabilities of throwing that number.
The reason I can not (actually will not) bet on Horn numbers is because I am not able to throw more Horn numbers than expected according to the probabilities. Just because I may do so on a given day is irrelevant because in order to exploit that I have to make that bet all the time. The days when I do not exceed the house advantage will overcome the profits I have on the days when I do so and cause it to be a losing bet for me in the long term. But I know I can overcome a low house advantage on the box numbers with Come bets.
The same holds true for placing the 5 or 9 with a 4% edge. There will be days when I happen to overcome that but on the days when I do not I will be losing a significant portion of what I have won on the days when I did. I am better off making Place bets on the 6 or 8 with a 1.52% house edge. If the casino only collects the commission for a buy on the 4 or 10 on a win only, the 1.67% edge makes that another good bet. You see it does not matter if I am having rolls which I do not get paid on if in order to get paid, I have to make a bet which pays out less than I am able to overcome with my skill in the long run.
I realize this is a new concept for you and a completely different way of thinking about betting than you are accustomed to doing. But I sense you are looking to learn something about this because you are asking how controlled shooters bet. I sense you are trying to understand what is behind our thinking. I am not sure if you are willing to alter what you think is a good way of betting. But if you can grasp and accept these concepts, I know you will be a better bettor for it.
[This post appeared on the private, members-only Golden Touch web site. Get a free 60-day subscription. Just email Frank Scoblete at firstname.lastname@example.org.]
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