Analysis of Las Vegas Casino Win Rates

In a previous article the Nevada Gaming Control Board’s most recent report of casino win rates and amounts was presented. The results were very interesting – even surprising.

This article contains an analysis of some of the figures presented there.

First a look at what was expected and made sense.

The overall dollar amount won for slots was over twice as much as for table and other games ($10.153 billion for slots versus $4,818 billion for table games).

The highest casino win percentage was from penny slots. A huge amount of money is fed through penny slots, meaning the percentage will not vary as much due to large wins. It also means the casino wins much less per amount bet, so it has to have a higher win percentage to make the same amount for equal machine play.

The largest casino win is from multi-denomination slots. This makes sense since these slots dominate the casino floor.

Sports betting win percent was roughly five percent (5.83 percent). This is in line with the normal win of 5 percent. If the sports book can get the exact same amount bet on both sides of the bet, the casino wins five percent. Depending on how much the casino varies from an even split and whether it is off on the winning side (for the player) or the losing side, the casino will win a slightly lower
or slightly higher percentage, respectively.

Now, a look at results that were not expected.

First a bit of ranting: I find it frustrating that the Nevada Gaming Control Board did not separate video poker from the general slot information. This is one of the very few games in a casino where a
skilled player can reduce the casino edge with skilled play.

They do separate Ultimate Texas Hold'em and Three-card Poker from the rest of casino table games, but they do not separate video poker from the rest of the slots.

I can understand why this might be the case, but it still it frustrates me.

The information on Ultimate Texas Hold'em and Three-card Poker does not distinguish returns based on table limits. Slot information is divided into categories based on the game’s denomination. Also, many – if not most – machines that have video poker, also have other games such as video blackjack or video keno available to play on them. The amount of record-keeping to split out video poker would be a pain for casino management.

My frustration notwithstanding, let’s look at some results that were not expected.

It is normal that a higher denomination, will have a lower casino win percent. They make more money per amount of play from higher denomination slots so they can afford to lower the win percentage and still make a nice profit.

In this report, $100 slots had a higher casino win percentage than nickel, five-dollar, and $25 slots. I expected $100 slots to have the lowest percentage.

This anomaly can be explained by the fact that variations in wins and loses on $100 slots have a greater impact in casino win amounts. That, combined with the fact that the amount played through these games as a percentage of other denominations is low, means wins and losses have a greater impact on the win percentage.

For example, $100 slots casino win percentage was 6.09 percent yielding $31.9 million for the casino on play of $523.8 million – 5.24 million times the denomination.

Dollar slots on the other hand had a casino win percentage of 6.39 percent yielding $638.1 million for the casino on play of $9.986 billion – 99.86 times the denomination. This is almost 20 times (18.8) the amount of play.

The variance impact is must less with almost 20 times more play.

I was also surprised by some of the very high win percentages on some of the table games. Future articles will explore this in more detail and offer suggestions for helping to keep the casino win rate down during your casino play.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and 888casino.com. He authored the video poker section of "Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!" You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com

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