Ask the Slot Expert: How does a casino determine its return to player

Question: I never thought much about Return to Player (RTP) regarding slot machines. Only when seeing stats a while ago about the various percentages in casinos on the strip, downtown, or off strip, did I realize how little I know about it and am curious. For example:

1. How do casinos determine their RTP, does it change, and if so what factors usually impact the RTP?
2. In conjunction with that, does geography or foot traffic in the Las Vegas area or anywhere we have casinos affect setting a casino's RTP?
3. Does a state gaming commission follow casino RTPs or produce annual stats?
4. Is it easy for a player to find out what a particular casino's RTP is, and if so where would they find that information?

Would appreciate information on this topic.

Thank you for your informative and, lots of times, amusing articles!

Answer: Channeling Roseanne Roseannadanna, "You ask a lot of questions for someone from New Jersey." I have no idea where you're from, but that's the quote.

I had a fortunate incident concerning your questions today. I'll get to it after answering them.

Question 1: Oooh, a three-parter. It reminds of reporters questioning a politician in a press conference. They always seem to ask a two-part question. Many times the politician answers (or more likely, evades answering) the second part and completely ignores the first part. I guess reporters have to ask multi-part questions when it's their turn because they have no guarantee of being able to ask a follow-up or second question.

As best as I can determine, this is what goes into a casino's RTP calculation:

Eye of newt, and toe of frog,
Wool of bat, and tongue of dog,
Adder's fork, and blind-worm's sting,
Lizard's leg, and owlet's wing.

To be serious, the calculation is part science and part alchemy. The casino takes into account how much revenue it wants at each denomination, the RTPs at the competition (if any), and what the market will bear. It has to strike a balance between these factors. For example, a casino on a cruise ship has no competition, but the RTP can't be so low that players eventually get frustrated and, heaven forbid, do one of the other hundred activities on the ship.

A casino's RTP can change, but glacially. My Desert Inn insider once told me that I was not going to be pleased with upcoming changes. The DI wanted to lower the RTP on dollar video poker, so my beloved 9/6 Jacks paytable there was going to be lowered.

Similarly, The Palms used to have multi-hand 9/6 Jacks quarter machines. One afternoon I saw signs on the machines saying that they were going to be taken out of service at 7PM. I played on one until past the deadline. When the slot tech came and put the machines that weren't being played out of service, he said that I could play for as long as I wanted. He wasn't going to make the change for a few hours. When I returned a few days later, 9/6 Jacks was gone.

When a casino wants to change its RTP, it orders new machines with paybacks close to that number. It frequently leaves the machines already on the floor as is. The RTP gradually gets closer to the new number as machines are replaced.

I know of only one time when a casino did a mass change of paybacks on its machines. When Mandalay Bay opened, the slot floor was divided into virtual zones and players in each zone could win a randomly awarded bonus prize. The RTPs included the values of the bonus prizes, so the machines paid a little less than they would have without the bonus.

Players didn't understand the bonusing and they had the impression that the machines were tight. Mandalay Bay ditched the bonus prizes and raised the paybacks on the machines.

Question 2: Let me cover all parts of this question and say that the market affects the RTP. When I went to a tribal casino in California, I passed a sign saying that I was entering the reservation. I had to drive another 10 minutes before I got to the casino. The nearest casino competitor was miles and miles away.

Does a casino that is hard to get to have a low RTP because it has to earn more from the people who do go to the casino or does it have a high RTP to get people to visit? I don't know. Eye of newt, toe of frog.

Question 3: Absolutely. The state gaming commission doesn't really care what a casino's RTP is -- that's a business decision -- but it does care that each machine's actual RTP falls within the expected range given the number of plays on the machine and that the casino has investigated machines whose performance falls out of the expected range. The commission is primarily protecting the state's tax revenue from gaming, but it is also protecting the players. Sometimes two things can be true.

Question 4: Yes. No. Sometimes. Some state gaming commissions report paybacks by casino. Nevada's does not. Publicly available reports are broken down by area, not by individual casino.

Use your favorite search site to find the URL for a state's gaming commission or even try searching for slot paybacks in a particular state and being careful to choose the result that points to the commission's report.

Your question concerned a casino's overall policy for how much it wants to return to players. Let me address question 2 from the machine level. Many players believe that casinos change paybacks on machines on the fly based on some external factors.

That leads me to my fortunate incident.

I like it when HBO (HBO Max or whatever it's calling its streaming service today) tacks on the Overtime segment to Real Time with Bill Maher or makes it available in the Extras tab. It's easier for me to watch it there than to have to go to YouTube. Plus, it always takes me an hour or more to watch the 10-minute Overtime show because YouTube's algorithm always finds many other videos I want to see.

HBO didn't have Overtime for the latest episode on its site, so I had to go to Youtube. After watching it, I clicked on one of the recommended videos and I found one of the best videos on a slot machine I have even seen.

RNG vs Casino: Who Really Controls Your Spin? shows you exactly how much control a casino has over the results of a spin.

Spoiler alert: None. The casino can set the overall RTP on a machine, but it has no control over the results of a spin. And a casino can't change the RTP on a machine on a whim.

Remember that the state ensures that machines are performing to spec. You can't mix play results at one RTP with results at a different RTP. Changing the RTP on a machine eseentially makes it a new asset and the casino has to close out the data at the old RTP and start fresh at the new one. Lots of bother and paperwork.

Finally, thanks for the kind words about my articles.

If you would like to see more non-smoking areas on slot floors in Las Vegas, please sign my petition on change.org.

Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert™, at slotexpert@slotexpert.com.

Copyright © John Robison. Slot Expert and Ask the Slot Expert are trademarks of John Robison.

Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert™, at slotexpert@slotexpert.com. Because of the volume of mail I receive, I regret that I can't reply to every question.

Copyright © John Robison. Slot Expert and Ask the Slot Expert are trademarks of John Robison.