Ask the Slot Expert: Video poker tournament strategy -- not necessarily based on Expected Value

A friend recently said that she was going to play in a video poker tournament. She doesn't usually play the paytable that was going to be used on the machines, so she said she was going to learn and practice the strategy.

Does learning the mathematically correct strategy for a paytable in a video poker tournament make sense?

Over the long run, you'll win the most amount of money from a paytable by following the mathematically correct strategy -- that is, holding the combination of cards with the highest Expected Value. It doesn't really matter how we define the long run. The number of hands we need to play to reach any reasonable definition of the long run is many orders of magnitude greater than the number of hands we'll play in the tournament.

We play so few hands in the tournament, our results are all luck. That's not to say that there aren't some things you can do to improve your chances.

Perhaps you've heard the old joke about the man praying to win the lottery. Week after week he says his prayer. Week after week he doesn't win.

This goes on for months until he gets an answer to his prayer.

"Please, let me win the lottery," he begs.

The reply: "Can you at least buy a ticket?"

So, what can you do to try to improve your chances?

First, knowledge is power. Find out everything you can about how the tournament operates. Find out which paytable will be used. Find out what constitutes a round. Finally, find out the prize structure. These things are spelled out in the tournament rules.

All of the slot tournaments I've played in had timed rounds. It didn't matter how many spins you were able to get in. Everyone's round ended when time ran out.

Most of the video poker tournaments I've competed in had a hand limit in addition to a time limit. The hand limit reduced the advantage quick players might have had over slower players. Everyone's round ended when they ran out of time or ran out of hands, whichever came first.

Now that we have this knowledge, let's put it to use.

Look at the paytable and think about how you might handle certain situations. Video poker tournaments tend to use bonus paytables with multiple modifiers to give players a chance at a big non-royal jackpot, so let's look at Triple Double Bonus. Here's how I might play certain situations in a tournament. I don't know the mathematically correct strategy. My play may be mathematically correct. It might not be.

Two pair, one pair high: If I hold both pairs, my best outcome is a full house and worst is a push. If I hold just the high pair, I might get four-of-a-kind. My worst outcome is still a push. I'll hold just the high pair.

Two pair, both low: Hold both, unless one pair is a pair of 2s, 3s or 4s. In that case, hold just that pair. If both pairs are 2s, 3s, or 4s, hold just the pair and don't hold the kicker. Let's just try to get the quad.

I can follow a simple strategy for two pair: hold a high pair, hold 2s through 4s, hold both. My goal is to win something from the hand, but also sometimes take a chance on a big payout.

The prize structure can affect your strategy. If only the top finisher gets a prize, it might make sense to go for broke and go for a royal on every hand. Players who get royals usually win tournaments.

Or it might make sense to play a little more conservatively, try for a high non-royal score, and hope that no one gets a royal.

It's like betting on Final Jeopardy in certain situations. Leaders can bet such that they have to get Final correct to win. If they're not sure they'll get Final right, they can bet an amount that forces second place to answer correctly in order to win.

If prizes go deep into the roster, you might want to play even more conservatively and shoot for finishing somewhere in the money instead of going for the gold and possibly winning nothing.

The next item in my notes is "Play fast," but I want to make the discussion more nuanced than that.

I once saw someone compete as if he had his own money at risk. He carefully considered which cards to hold for each hand. He still had a few hands left to play when time run out. That's a waste. My used car dealer friend said that you should "never leave money on the table."

If there is no hand limit, you can follow the advice I was once given. If you can't see what you should hold right away, don't go looking. If nothing jumps out at you, get five new cards. Play as many hands as you can.

I was originally going to say that, ideally, you should run out of hands at the same time as you run out of time. But that's not right. It doesn't matter how much time you have left as long as you spent as much time as you wanted on each hand.

You should have a strategy for a video poker tournament so you know how you want to play certain situations. The strategy just may not be the mathematical strategy. There's no right or wrong strategy to follow for a tournament.

If you would like to see more non-smoking areas on slot floors in Las Vegas, please sign my petition on change.org.

Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert™, at slotexpert@slotexpert.com.

Copyright © John Robison. Slot Expert and Ask the Slot Expert are trademarks of John Robison.

Send your slot and video poker questions to John Robison, Slot Expert™, at slotexpert@slotexpert.com. Because of the volume of mail I receive, I regret that I can't reply to every question.

Copyright © John Robison. Slot Expert and Ask the Slot Expert are trademarks of John Robison.