Casino City's Week 11 NFL Circa Million V 2023 Pro Football Contest Picks

17 November 2023

By Dan Ippolito

With the second quarter of the season in the books, Circa Sports paid out its Q2 winners for the Million V professional football contest. The first-place entrant took home a payday of $150,000, while the next two contestants tied for second won $50,000 each.

Hopefully the Casino City team members can put together an impressive record during the third quarter of the season as our first two haven’t been stellar by any means. Let’s take a look at our picks for Week 11.

#CircaSportsMillion V ????
Week 11 Contest Point Spreads

?? PDF: https://t.co/Jzk6uTpGvJ pic.twitter.com/A0PtaSD3CW

— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) November 16, 2023

Pittsburgh pick’em over Cleveland
If there’s ever a weekend to pile on, it’s this weekend for the Steelers. Pittsburgh sits at 6-3 overall, but more importantly, it holds a 2-0 record in the AFC North, including an early season 26-22 victory over this weekend’s opponent. So, if the Steelers want to keep pace with Baltimore, which is 8-3 overall and 3-2 in the division following last night’s win over Cincinnati, this is as good of time as any to pad its lead over the Browns in the division.

With a victory at The Dawg Pound, Pittsburgh would also increase its lead over the Bengals, who are not only 0-3 in the division, but they also lost quarterback Joe Burrow to a wrist injury last night. And despite the fact that Cleveland enters the game with the NFL’s best defense, it’s Steeler’s linebacker T.J. Watt who is salivating to face rookie signal caller Dorian Thompson-Robinson, following starter Deshaun Watson’s season-ending shoulder injury. Watt enters the game second in sacks with 10.5, behind Browns’ defensive end Myles Garret, who’s tied for the league lead with 11.

What’s bigger than a mistake? The answer is a $230 million contract mistake. Watson, who signed the biggest guaranteed deal ever last season, has missed a bulk of last season and this season due to legal issues and injuries, and now Cleveland can only hope that its defense can keep it afloat. Through nine games, the Browns’ defensive unit is only allowing a league-low 242.7 overall yards per game. Cleveland’s defense is also tied for fourth in takeaways with 15 as its recorded nine interceptions and six fumble recoveries. Defense aside though, unless Thompson-Robinson can channel other past late-round quarterback’s magic then it’s going to be a long day for the league’s best defense.

The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games and they’ll make it seven behind the running attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.

Some ???? from Week ??

More ?? https://t.co/88sN1veNpj; pic.twitter.com/mWEmP6AOOk

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 15, 2023

Houston -4.5 over Arizona
Games coming down to the wire has been a staple for the Texans. Over the last five weeks, all of Houston’s games have been decided by seven points or fewer. The last two have gone in the Texans’ favor, a 30-27 win at Cincinnati and a 39-37 home victory over Tampa Bay.

Rookie C.J. Stroud looks to continue his remarkable rookie season as he leads the NFL in total yards through Week 10. Stroud has developed great connections with wide receiver Tank Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz.

The Texans will square off against the Cardinals who just got back their QB last week. Kyler Murray helped the team break out of a four-game losing streak with a 25-23 win over Atlanta.

Despite the Cardinals showing signs of life last week, the Texans have obviously been the more consistent team throughout the season and Murray coming back doesn’t seem like it is enough to throw Houston off its push for a playoff spot in the AFC.

The first rookie since the 1970 merger to be leading the league in yards per game through Week 10 ?? pic.twitter.com/Y02GpMaZpp

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 14, 2023

Jacksonville -7 over Tennessee
After losing five straight matchups to the Titans, last year the Jaguars got over the hump as they swept the season series. This is why Tennessee is exactly the team Jacksonville is looking forward to hosting, following last weekend’s 34-3 humbling home loss to San Francisco.

After all, the Titans are definitely not the 49ers, for many reasons, the biggest being defense. Last week, Jaguars’ quarterback Trevor Lawrence was sacked five times and intercepted twice. This week, Lawrence will look to get back on track, not only from last week, but also for the season as a whole as he’s only thrown for 2,120 yards and nine touchdowns, to go along with six interceptions. The key will be for the offensive line to give Lawrence enough time to go through his reads and scramble if necessary, and while it’s not San Francisco, the Titans defensive unit has recorded 24 sacks. Look for running back Travis Etienne and wide receiver Christian Kirk, who have combined for 10 scores, to help Lawrence get back to form and keep Jacksonville, which enters the game at 6-3 overall, atop the AFC South.

Tennessee enters Sunday with a similar problem to the Jaguars and that is keeping quarterback Will Levis clean. Over the past two weeks, including last Sunday’s 20-6 road loss to Tampa Bay, Levis has been sacked four times per game. However, that is where the similarities stop between the two teams as the rookie signal caller, despite throwing four scores in his debut a few weeks ago following the injury to starter Ryan Tannehill, isn’t a former number one overall pick and the Titans sit at 3-6 overall and 0-1 in the division. Add that to the fact that Tennessee has only scored twice on the road this season and neither of which was via the pass.

The lucky number for the Jaguars this weekend is three as they are 4-1 ATS this year with three straight covers, and they’ll take down the Titans for the third game in as many games.

Learn from the loss.@Dream_Finders; | #DUUUVAL; pic.twitter.com/VVZxZUvsKQ

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) November 13, 2023

Minnesota +2.5 over Denver
On Monday night, the Broncos shocked a lot of people when they took down the Buffalo Bills in on the road as a seven-point dog, knocking the Bills down to 5-5 for the season. This comes just a week after the Broncos shut down the Kansas City offense for a 24-9 home victory.

After starting the season 1-5, Denver has put a few games together to improve to 4-5 on the season with a chance to reach .500. However, arguably the hottest team in football stands in its way, the Minnesota Vikings.

Since Justin Jefferson went down with an injury, Minnesota has rattled off five straight wins with newly acquired QB Josh Dobbs being a major reason why over the last two games. While Jefferson was back at practice this week, the team made it quite clear he will not be suiting up for a game until he is 100% ready to go and not a minute sooner.

That being said, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison have really picked up the pass catching responsibilities and are one of the reasons for Dobbs’ recent success. It should be noted that Hockenson is questionable with a rib injury. Dobbs will have a true test against the Broncos defense that has been nothing short of difficult to move the ball against. Dobbs’ escaping abilities and skills to extend plays with his legs will be huge for the Vikings’ offense come Sunday night.

.@josh_dobbs1 finds @TheeHOCK8 for another #Vikings score

??: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/ZzBW51cf2i

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 12, 2023

Seattle -1 over Los Angeles Rams
At 3-3, the Rams were right in the mix of the NFC, but after dropping three straight, they sit at 3-6 and had probably their worst game of the season last week as they fell 20-3 at Green Bay.

On the road in Green Bay is always a tough place to play, especially when you get into the colder months, so you could use that as an excuse for the Rams’ performance. However, even at home the team is only 1-3 and that lone win came against the Cardinals who were without Murray at the time.

On the other side, QB Geno Smith has his team in a very solid position. Tied at 6-3 with the San Francisco 49ers, the Seahawks sit in second place in the NFC West due to tiebreakers and currently hold a Wild Card spot for the playoffs. Getting to 7-3 would put them in a great spot.

Look for Seattle head coach Pete Carroll send a lot of pressure at Matthew Stafford as he isn’t the most mobile QB and that defensive mindset has been an issue for the Rams so far this season.

Week 10 Results: 2-3
Season Record: 19-29-2