Casino City's Week 3 NFL Circa Million IV Pro Football Contest Picks

23 September 2022

By Dan Ippolito

After a shaky start to the season for our picks, we had a slight bounce back Week 2, going 3-2, bringing our season record to 5-5.

There are only 15 perfect 10-0 records remaining in the Circa Sports contest. We currently sit in the middle of the pack and hope to pick up some ground on the “competition” with our “mythical” entry as we have not actually entered the contest.

Last night, we saw the Cleveland Browns take down the Pittsburgh Steelers 29-17 onThursday Night Football as we head into the Sunday and Monday matchups.

Let’s dive into our five picks for Week 3:

#CircaSportsMillion IV ????
Week 3 Contest Point Spreads

?? PDF: https://t.co/tOeTIIscow pic.twitter.com/SjtZkdKEFf

— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) September 22, 2022

1. Indianapolis +5.5 over Kansas City
At the risk of ending up with egg all over our face come Sunday afternoon, we are going to back the Colts, who were absolutely dreadful last week in an embarrassing 24-0 loss at Jacksonville.

There are two things we have learned over the years when betting on the NFL. First, no team is as bad — or as good — as it looked the week before. Secondly, it's always best to sell high and buy low, and, yes, we are most certainly buying low on the 0-1-1 Colts.

Hear us out before skipping over to the next pick. NFL home dogs that were shutout the week before are on a 12-2 run against the spread, simply because the number becomes inflated and that's the case here. The look-ahead line on this game last week was KC -3, so we're definitely getting some value at +5.5. And let's not forget that the Chiefs got outplayed for most of their game last week at home against the Chargers. And there's a good chance they may be looking past Indy here as they have a Super Bowl revenge match with Tom Brady and the Bucs on deck next week.

It's going to take some guts to go to the window with this one, but let's take the Colts, who are much healthier than a week ago and are playing with their season on the line at home.

Week 3.#KCvsIND pic.twitter.com/BoYVzp1dpb

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 22, 2022

2. Las Vegas -2 over Tennessee

After getting Davante Adams in the offseason, not many would have predicted the Las Vegas Raiders would be sitting at an 0-2 start. They played the Chargers in Week 1 and had a collapse in Week 2 in the overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

Now they square off against another 0-2 team that fans would have guessed had at least one win by now, the Tennessee Titans. Both teams have had issues defensively and for the Titans, offensively as well. The Raiders have shown signs on offense and it may just be getting used to Adams jumping on the roster and being the primary target.

This is a good opportunity for the Raiders to right the ship and show that this 0-2 start isn’t the team’s identity.

3. Buffalo -5.5 over Miami

It’s been clear to everyone that the Buffalo Bills have been the best team in the NFL through the first two weeks. Leading the NFL with 36 points per game and also second with 8.5 points allowed per game, Buffalo has dominated both sides of the ball.

QB Josh Allen connecting with WR Stefon Diggs has been seemingly nonstop and defenses do not have an answer for the duo. Last week, the team was without Gabe Davis, who had a very solid Week 1 performance and could be joining the offense again in this matchup with the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are riding high after a wild comeback win against the Baltimore Ravens where Miami put up 28 points in the final quarter. While that momentum can run with them into Week 3, it seems that run may be halted by a brick wall named the Buffalo Bills.

Despite a few injuries on defense this week, Buffalo will most likely aim to get pressure in Tua Tagovailoa’s face and make it difficult for him to find speedy weapons Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

In a key AFC East divisional matchup, Buffalo has the capability to cover and take control of the division.

Sunday's matchup will feature the NFL’s top 3 leading receivers.@Ticketmaster | #BUFvsMIA

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 22, 2022

4. Minnesota -6 over Detroit
Now, we know what you’re going to say… Yes, we know the Lions are averaging the second most points per game with 35.5, only trailing the vaunted Buffalo Bills’ 36.

Yes, we know that Detroit leads the league with 7.2 yards per carry. And yes, we know Lions’ quarterback Jared Goff is coming off a four-touchdown day with an average passer rating over 100 for the season. With all that said, what we know more is that this is still Detroit and two games don’t make up for a heart-breaking history.

What will be history though is the Lions’ defense! This weekend, Vikings’ quarterback Kirk Cousins will not only target all-world receiver Justin Jefferson, but he will also finally get receivers Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn, tight ends Irv Smith and Johnny Mundt, and most importantly running back Dalvin Cook into the receptions mix.

There are just too many weapons for the Vikings, despite their clunker on Monday in a loss at Philadelphia, and this weekend they’re going hunting for Lions.

5. Seattle over Atlanta
The Seattle Seahawks are set to host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday and despite really struggling on the road in Week 2, a home game with the “12th man” in Seattle is always a boost for the Seahawks.

QB Geno Smith played a much better game in Week 1 at home against the Denver Broncos in Russell Wilson’s return after spending his entire career at QB for Seattle. The Seahawks do have some injuries on defense, but the struggles defensively really have been with the Atlanta Falcons, who are giving up just shy of 30 points per game.

Geno and the Seattle offense could not score against the 49ers last week. In fact, the offense put up zero points and the only score was from a blocked field goal, but we see this as a bounce-back, home win opportunity. It is a pick’em for this Sunday matchup and the Seahawks should come out on top and improve to 2-1 on the season and 2-0 at home.

Wednesday workin'. ??#GoHawks x @Gatorade pic.twitter.com/uW1VVxvsSS

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) September 22, 2022

#CircaSportsMillion IV Standings Update ????

?? Full Season Standings: https://t.co/foBHi4vXtY pic.twitter.com/u41C2baTGy

— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) September 20, 2022

Week 2 Results: 3-2
Season Record: 5-5