Top 10 Super Bowl LVIII prop bets

5 February 2024

By Dan Ippolito

We have finally begun Super Bowl week in Las Vegas. In six days, the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers will battle it out to determine who is the best football team in the NFL. Whether you are going to watching from home or taking in the game at a watch party in Las Vegas, the hope is your bets will end up cashing.

That said, there are more ways to bet on the game than just the side and total, thanks to hundreds of prop bets being offered by sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at 10 props bets for Sunday’s game for bettors to consider.

All odds provided by bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook

10. First play of the game
Both of these teams depend on their running game to be successful in order to open up the passing game.

In the three playoff games, the Chiefs’ first offensive play has only been a run once. However, both passing attempts were incomplete. Nobody wants to start the Super Bowl with second and long, so a run from RB Isiah Pacheco to try to get a few yards to open the game seems like the safer play.
As for the 49ers, both of their opening drives in the playoffs have been Christian McCaffrey rushing attempts and I would expect more of the same if they receive the opening kickoff.

Bet $140 to win $100 on run

9. Rice to score a touchdown
While Kansas City rookie receiver Rashee Rice only has one TD in the postseason so far, the targets are there. Over three playoff games, Rice has been targeted 25 times and don’t expect that number to drop come Sunday evening.

Rice and TE Travis Kelce are the best two options that QB Patrick Mahomes has in his aerial attack. It isn’t going to be a shock to anyone that the 49ers will try to make life very difficult for Kelce, including most likely double-teaming him when the team gets into the redzone, which could do wonders for Rice if he is in single coverage at his size of 204 pounds.

Bet $100 to win $140 on yes

SEEING RED. pic.twitter.com/y18SpuDQdw

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) February 2, 2024

8. Brandon Aiyuk’s longest reception over 24.5 yards
Aiyuk has gone over this total for longest reception in a game in 10 out of 18 games this season, and since the KC defensive weakness is against the run, look for the Chiefs to be putting more men in the box and taking a chance with one-on-one coverage against the San Fran receivers on the outside.

Aiyuk, who set a career record in receiving yards this season, is one of the more physical wide receivers in the game and typically wins most one-on-one battles. He averaged 18 yards per catch over the course of the season and we expect him to have numerous opportunities for a big play on Sunday.

Bet $115 to win $100 on the over

7. Total penalties accepted
There is no lack of physicality when it comes to these two defenses. With such high offensive talent, you may see a lot of defensive backs jamming the receivers at the line of scrimmage and creating a lot of contact on routes. If officials are calling it close, you could see a few illegal contact or pass interference flags being thrown.

In addition, both teams have an impressive pass rush. In order to protect the QB at all costs, these offensive lines may be guilty of some holding calls to avoid giving up a sack.

Then you have the weight of the Super Bowl on the players’ shoulders, which could lead to some false starts or illegal formation penalties early on as teams work themselves into the game and find a rhythm.

Bet $125 to win $100 on over 10.5

6. Samuel over 50 receiving yards
When thinking about the 49ers’ offense, the first thought immediately goes to Christian McCaffrey’s skill in both the rushing and passing attack. He isn’t alone though. McCaffrey is joined by Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk is the team’s top weapons.

This is an alternate line for Deebo as his over/under for receiving yards is 58.5, but here we dropped it down to 50 for a little less value.

While suffering an early season injury, Samuel showed glimpses of his capabilities with back-to-back 100+ receiving yard games in early December. Deebo also was a big part of the comeback against Detroit a week ago, grabbing eight passes for 89 yards.

Obviously, McCaffrey is going to be a top priority for the Kansas City defense, so there will need to be production from the other weapons like Deebo, who is the team’s leader in receiving yards in the postseason.

Bet $155 to win $100 on yes

5. Will a team score three times straight?
This is something that the typical bettor will be trying to take the plus money, but this is an occurrence that happens more often than you think. In fact, San Francisco opponents scored three straight times in 12 out of 19 games this season, while KC has seen its opponents pull off the scoring hat trick 11 times.

In the previous Super Bowl between these two teams in 2020, both teams scored three straight times, and we'll call for a repeat in the rematch.

Bet $160 to win $100 on yes

4. Race to 10
In their two playoff games this year against the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, the Niners have been held scoreless in the first quarter in both games, including trailing 24-7 at halftime in the NFC title game.

The 49ers have found themselves fortunate enough to escape both of those poor starts and turn them into victories. However, that had to be a major point of emphasis in the practices leading up to this week.

Getting off to a better start is a must. You don’t want to see another zero on the board when the first 15 minutes of action come to a close.

Don’t be surprised if QB Brock Purdy, McCaffrey, Samuel and company come out firing to make a statement early and jumping out to a lead in the opening quarter.

Bet $130 to win $100 on the 49ers

The Niners have landed in Las Vegas ?? #SBLVIII pic.twitter.com/sFUQ1rhkMw

— NFL (@NFL) February 5, 2024

3. Under 23 points in the second half
Despite having the best quarterback on the planet, Kansas City has been very good to under bettors this season, going under the total in 14 out of 20 games. They have been an even stronger under team in the second halves of games, going under in 18 out of 20 games after halftime.

That trend is simply too strong to ignore, especially since both teams prefer to run the ball. If either team gets the lead in the second half, they will try to take the air out of the ball and depend on the running game to drain the clock, so let's call for another low-scoring second half for the Chiefs.

Bet $105 to win $100 on the under

2. Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Mahomes is going to have to be the best player on the field for Kansas City to walk away with the Lombardi trophy, so expect Andy Reid to have Mahomes drop back to pass more than usual.

When the Chiefs get into the redzone, the 49ers will have a lot of their attention focused on Kelce which could leave rookie WR Rice in single coverage as he works his way into the endzone.

The 49ers offense is quite potent so in order to keep up with them, Mahomes will need to have the offense clicking on all cylinders.

Bet $155 to win $100 on the over 1.5 Mahomes TDs

Landed in Las Vegas. pic.twitter.com/VVIoH5KCA6

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) February 5, 2024

1. Purdy to throw an interception
In the NFC Championship Game, San Francisco got off to a brutal start in the first half which included an interception thrown by Purdy. That all quickly changed when the 49ers came out in the second half and won the third quarter 17-0, leading to the comeback victory.

Over his last eight games, Purdy has tossed a pick in four of those games. In two out of the three playoff games for the Chiefs, the Kansas City defense has forced an interception.

The goal will be to make Purdy uncomfortable early on just like the Detroit Lions did a week ago in the first half. Get pressure on the QB and have him force a couple of throws that could end up going the other way for the Chiefs.

Bet $110 to win $100 on yes