Up as You Lose Betting Systems

(One of a series of articles about why betting systems cannot work.)

One of the most common questions I receive from readers is what do I think about this or that betting system. Can the reader win with it?

Each betting system sounds reasonable (well, most of them anyway). The logic presented seems to make sense.

I every case, however, there is something left out of the string of logic that is used to promote the betting system.

This article examines up as you lose betting systems.

As the name states, up as you lose betting means the gambler will increase the bet as bets lose. There are many variations of this theme.

• Some systems call for raising the bet one unit after each loss
• Some call for doubling the bet with each loss
• Some call for using other patterns to raise bets
• Some call for staying at the same level of betting for several bets before increasing the bet

Raising the bet one unit after each loss is self-explanatory – start with a one-unit bet. If you lose, raise the next bet one unit. Continue raising the bet one unit on each loss until you win. Then start the sequence from the beginning.

Doubling the bet with each loss is also self-explanatory – Start with a one-unit bet. On a loss double the previous bet. Continue until a win, then start over with a one-unit bet.

There are several strategies calling for various betting size sequences to use when losing. The most common is the Fibonacci sequence. This sequence uses the sum of previous two bets as the size of the next bet. It goes, 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, etc.

Other systems say to bet a certain level for two, three, or more times before raising the bet. Then after three to four losses at each level, start over with one unit.

There are winning and losing streaks. However, after many, many events, the wins and losses will gradually approach the mathematical odds. That is the major logic behind the up as you lose betting systems.

All these betting systems are based on the logic that gamblers must win a bet “sometime.” For example, after losing seven consecutive bets on the “thirds” bet (a bet on one third of the non-zero numbers) in roulette, the odds of losing the eighth bet are only 2.5 percent.

The unfortunate thing about the gamblers that buy into these betting systems is, there is no guarantee when the next win will come. It could come in the next decision, or it could be tens, or scores, or even hundreds of decisions before the next win occurs.

To keep raising bets until the next win requires two things, neither of which is true.

• The gambler must have unlimited funds
• The casino game must allow unlimited bets and payouts

This is the fact that betting systems promoters (and their followers) fail to understand.

Betting systems could win 75, 80, 90, 95, even 98 percent of the time. It is the losses – the catastrophic losses – that make these betting systems overall losers.

As always, may all your wins be swift and large, and your losses be slow and small.

Jerry “Stickman”

Jerry “Stickman” is an expert in craps, blackjack and video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines and 888casino.com. He authored the video poker section of “Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo, and Pai Gow Poker!” You can contact Jerry “Stickman” at stickmanjerryg@gmail.com

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